Peningkatan performance Logistic Regression menggunakan teknik Ensemble Bagging pada kasus Credit Scoring

  • Firman Aziz Universitas Pancasakti
Keywords: Credit Scoring; Logistic Regression; Ensemble; Bagging; Newton Raphson

Abstract

Pengembangan model credit scoring yang efektif menjadi sangat penting karena volume data pelanggan industri kredit saat ini sangat besar. Penyelesaian masalah credit scoring berhasil mendapatkan kinerja prediktif terbaik menggunakan model metode statistik tetapi kinerjanya masih dapat ditingkatkan dengan memperkirakan parameter menggunakan persamaan nonlinear. Penelitian ini mengusulkan peningkatan metode Logistic Regression dengan melakukan teknik Ensemble dengan memperkirakan parameter Newton Raphson. Teknik Ensemble yang digunakan adalah bagging. Dua data yang akan digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah German dan Australian Dataset. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode yang diusulkan berhasil mencapai kinerja terbaik dengan meningkatkan kinerja klasifikasi tunggal dengan akurasi sebesar 79.6 % untuk German Dataset dan 86.9 % untuk Australian Dataset.

References

Kim, Y. S., & Sohn, S. Y. (2004). Managing loan customers using misclassification patterns of credit scoring model. Expert Systems with Applications, 26(4), 567-573.

Desai, V. S., Crook, J. N., & Overstreet Jr, G. A. (1996). A comparison of neural networks and linear scoring models in the credit union environment. European journal of operational research, 95(1), 24-37.

Lessmann, S., Baesens, B., Seow, H. V., & Thomas, L. C. (2015). Benchmarking state-of-the-art classification algorithms for credit scoring: An update of research. European Journal of Operational Research, 247(1), 124-136.

Tsai, C. F. (2014). Combining cluster analysis with classifier ensembles to predict financial distress. Information Fusion, 16, 46-58.

Devi, C. D., & Chezian, R. M. (2016, October). A relative evaluation of the performance of ensemble learning in credit scoring. In 2016 IEEE International Conference on Advances in Computer Applications (ICACA) (pp. 161-165). IEEE.

Alam, L., & Mamun, T. I. (2015). An Analytical Comparison on Filter Feature Extraction Method in Data Mining using J48 Classifier. International Journal of Computer Applications, 975, 8887.

West, D., Dellana, S., & Qian, J. (2005). Neural network ensemble strategies for financial decision applications. Computers & operations research, 32(10), 2543-2559.

Nanni, L., & Lumini, A. (2009). An experimental comparison of ensemble of classifiers for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring. Expert systems with applications, 36(2), 3028-3033.

Ala'raj, M., & Abbod, M. (2015, September). A systematic credit scoring model based on heterogeneous classifier ensembles. In 2015 International Symposium on Innovations in Intelligent SysTems and Applications (INISTA) (pp. 1-7). IEEE.

Lawi, A., Aziz, F., & Syarif, S. (2017, August). Ensemble GradientBoost for increasing classification accuracy of credit scoring. In 2017 4th International Conference on Computer Applications and Information Processing Technology (CAIPT) (pp. 1-4). IEEE.

Dahiya, S., Handa, S. S., & Singh, N. P. (2015). Credit scoring using ensemble of various classifiers on reduced feature set. Industrija, 43(4).

Akkoc, S. (2012). An empirical comparison of conventional techniques, neural networks and the three stage hybrid Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model for credit scoring analysis: The case of Turkish credit card data. European Journal of Operational Research, 222(1), 168-178.

Thomas, L. C. (2000). A survey of credit and behavioural scoring: forecasting financial risk of lending to consumers. International journal of forecasting, 16(2), 149-172.

Agresti, A. (2010). Analysis of ordinal categorical data (Vol. 656). John Wiley & Sons.

Zhou, L., Lai, K. K., & Yu, L. (2010). Least squares support vector machines ensemble models for credit scoring. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(1), 127-133.

Kuncheva, L. I. (2014). Combining pattern classifiers: methods and algorithms. John Wiley & Sons.

Marques, A. I., García, V., & Sánchez, J. S. (2012). Exploring the behaviour of base classifiers in credit scoring ensembles. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(11), 10244-10250.

Published
2020-07-23